Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country?

Abstract

Aim: This study reviews the ability of the Russian Federation to reduce the high mortality until 2030 evenly across the country and in accordance with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).

Methods: We adopted the method suggested by Haenszel for estimating Premature Years of Life Lost for the age group <70 years and applied a projected reduction of 33% by 2030 as proposed for SDG 3.4. To calculate the potential time gap we used the model of the United Nations Development Programme and standardized the rates by the OECD 1980 Standard Population employing the direct method.

Results: If Russia keeps the present level of effort the reduction by one third of the level of premature mortality as in 2013 will be in reach already in 2024 i.e. 5.9 years in advance of the SDG 3 target for 2030. This target is achieved quite evenly also throughout the 8 districts of the Russian Federation between 10.6 and 5.0 years in advance and in selected special districts/republics with the highest and lowest mortality rates.

Conclusion: After the steep decrease of life expectancy during the 1990ies the Russian Federation returned to the original trajectory.

Keywords: gap analysis, premature mortality, public health, Russian Federation, SDG.

Conflicts of interest: None declared.

Statement of Funding: None declared.

Note: This article by Valery Chernyavskiy, Helmut Wenzel, Julia Mikhailova, Alla Ivanova, Elena Zemlyanova, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic, Alexander Mikhailov, Ulrich Laaser: Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? will be published also in the Russian journal Social aspects of population health with permission of authors and editorial staff of the South Eastern European Journal of Public Health, translation of the article into Russian by V.E. Chernyavsky  and  E.V. Zemlyanova. The title of the article, the names of the authors, affiliations, and abstract in Russian fully correspond to the original.